Donald Trump: Classic or Dud?

Yeah, lawyer friends were just thinking lawyer strategy. There are more crimes than there are charges and trials, because prosecutors pick and choose which to pursue (or so I was told). If this were the only case it would seem desperate, but it's not, and Trump's I presume live in progress outrage I imagine is disproportionately focused on today and not the tougher stuff in store.

one thing about this indictment is someone has already gone to prison for the crime and that person is a prosecution witness, so in that sense i could see a prosecutor thinking it was a pretty good choice, whether its politically a good choice idk maybe they dont care

Cohen was convicted in federal court for tax evasion, making a false statement to a financial institution, excessive campaign contributions and other federal crimes. He was also convicted of perjury in his Congressional testimony. So, crimes arising out of the same set of facts, but different crimes in different court.

that argument actually resonated with the same lawyer friends.

people are saying its small beans but you gotta think that regardless the size of the beans the prosecutions gotta think they have a very strong case here

The news here this morning was showing some pro-Trump campaign nutter speculating that all this will just whoosh him right into the white house in '24.

Which leads me to ask - please don't tell me your country allows felons, or those with felonies hanging over them, to be president. My bf says "they'll allow a president from jail if they could" but surely that isnt right please tell me that isn't right.

well weve never actually elected a felon

you gotta think that regardless the size of the beans the prosecutions gotta think they have a very strong case here

That is true. "You come at the king, you best not miss."

there is no way he will be president again

many xps

Yeah, lawyer friends were just thinking lawyer strategy

which I think is naive

I’m not talking about prosecutors. Most lawyers are not prosecutors and are not having to deal with these questions. (I know you all hate prosecutors here.) I was just speaking about the lawyers I know. One of my best friends graduated from UC Berkeley's Law School. He has made a career out of being a general counsel, as a company’s main source of legal advice. He has been very successful. But when I talk to him about national politics I’m kind of taken aback by his sunny law school optimism about the legal system and law strategy

hate to tell you Trayce, but yes it is OK according to the law as written. there are states where felons can't own guns or vote, but I think those laws are wrong and bad and I'd probably (very reluctantly) have to agree here, if some rad progressive person with a felony ran I would want to vote for them

xp It's not naive. We don't go to court to lose.

xp to sleeve I get your point, assuming you mean someone who, lets say, was arrested for an abortion or a protest sit-in or similar. It just feels wrong if its a crimimal record for going against the fabric of democracy, but now I'm getting in over my head as far as my understanding of US civics.

i feel bad that everyone in the world follows our politics lol its not great

xp It's not naive. We don't go to court to lose.

― immodesty blaise (jimbeaux), Tuesday, April 4, 2023

ok, maybe it's just that the lawyers I know don't go to court, they manage mergers and acquisitions or are the general counsel for a company. so 'lawyer friends giving their opinion' is not relevant to me

lol lag we dont get much choice, the media shovel it down our throats like we're fois gras geese.

its that old hollywood razzle dazzle + being the global hegemon

I am watching this on loop mad giggling

https://fb.watch/jIE12Qt3Kn/?mibextid=YCRy0i

Trumper face planting

making a felony conviction a bar to running for or holding office, aside from requiring a constitutional amendment, would just mean Bernie Sanders or Hilary Clinton would be convicted of felonies in Idaho or Florida within seconds of announcing they were running.

it should be illegal to be a Trump and run for President.

he's going to win the election because the media can't help focusing on him. no other issues/themes matter.

eugene debs ran for US president from jail in 1920 (his fifth run)

the actual 1920 winner was warren g. harding lol, destroyed by a scandal called "teapot dome" (which im sorry is a v funny and humiliating name for a scandal) and died in office basically of being sad and being owned

he's going to win the election because the media can't help focusing on him. no other issues/themes matter.

― StanM, Wednesday, April 5, 2023

oh please

He hasn't come close to winning an election since he lost to Hillary Clinton in the popular vote but won the election anyway.

he came very close to winning vs biden

I‘be settled on the opinion that that election was close but not nearly as close as cable news wanted us to think it was

ok, maybe it's just that the lawyers I know don't go to court, they manage mergers and acquisitions or are the general counsel for a company. so 'lawyer friends giving their opinion' is not relevant to me

When it comes to litigators (Ken White is one), esp. Federal litigators or lawyers who understand the federal system, I'd def. take their word over a transactional/business/contracts lawyer. A litigator has/does work with DAs and understand a *different part* of the legal system than yr business lawyers. You wouldn't get a DA to work on closing a deal/transactional stuff.

It sucks that Trump has put the country in this position but it does speak to the complexities of our legal and political systems--I agree the GA case and the docs case are much bigger potatoes. Trump doesn't even go back to court for this case until December.

fwiw I don't think there's any chance he gets close to Biden if when he runs again. WI is looking blue, and there's no way he's winning MI--which is now very blue

the sucky part is he's exploiting a system that benefits people like him--not just white guys, but white guys in his line of work in NYC

I‘be settled on the opinion that that election was close but not nearly as close as cable news wanted us to think it was

― castanuts (DJP), Wednesday, April 5, 2023 8:32 AM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

45k votes across three states

re the strength of the case

The books and records counts laid out in the charging papers against Mr. Trump are the bread and butter of the D.A.’s office. Mr. Trump, who pleaded not guilty to all charges on Tuesday, is the 30th defendant to be indicted on false records charges by Mr. Bragg since he took office just over a year ago, with the D.A. bringing 151 counts under the statute so far. Indeed, the Trump Organization conviction and the Weisselberg plea included business falsification felonies.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/04/opinion/donald-trump-alvin-bragg-indictment-charges.html

ha! from a lawyer standpoint (I'm not a lawyer) i'd def take the word of a former prosecuting attorney over a business lawyer--kind of wild to me that the Ian Twitter guy and Elie Mystal are pessimistic about it. Also Ken White/Popehat's blog said the opposite that the nyt article does--"we still have no idea what the heart of this case is."

also a good reminder that just because someone is writing as a lawyer, doesn't mean they know what they're talking about

45k votes across three states

Thanks Electoral College. Whatta system.

I’m of the opinion that he should be arrested, charged and tried as often as possible, for every crime he has committed where there is enough evidence to build a case. Forget about whether he may or may not be found guilty. Was there a crime? Is there a case? Charge him. Just keep him in the criminal court system for as much time as possible, where he is unable to control the messaging, is not on his own schedule, and is not in charge of the situation. Get those photos out there in the news where he looks resigned and sulky and guilty as f*ck. That’s what people will see. Nobody new will tune into his press conferences and get riled up on his behalf. But people will see the photos and read the headlines and know that this is a fallen human being with no political future, with always another criminal indictment looming on the horizon. The more criminal cases and trial appearances he has to focus on and worry about, the less time he has to strategize and campaign and do the things he wants to do. As the indictments pile up, eventually he will look like nothing more than a rat in a trap, not a viable candidate for public office. Keep it coming.

^ how I break it down to an extent

otm. plus fatigue is a thing. Trump will always have a brainwashed herd that show up to sweat blood and tears for him, but lots of protesters are going to get tired of showing up to protest on the second, third, fourth indictments, much less keep up with them. many are spooked by January 6th arrests (as they should be). they're already talking themselves out of showing up due to their own conspiracy theories.

this one's getting all the buzz among his followers because it's the first one, but the novelty wears off, even they'll get bored.

yes I don't understand how anyone who isn't MAGA and lived through the last seven year could wring their hands and go, "Hells bells! I wish we could find stronger charges!" It's so like a (white) liberal to not embrace a victory, however fleeting.

if it were really a weak case that just fell apart that would be not great imo, but it doesnt seem like its that, so i mean get his ass

and i seriously doubt that any prosecutor is going to try to get him on some weak shit anyway prob not worth worrying about

but lots of protesters are going to get tired of showing up to protest on the second, third, fourth indictments

they didn't even show up to this one!

epistantophus very OTM, I know people are still pretending that political gravity doesn't exist since Trump won, but the last 6 years sure seem to suggest otherwise. this particular case might not sway much but when he's charged with trying to overturn the election in Georgia/stealing classified docs (and ignoring the subpoena, as we just found out yesterday!)/inciting an insurrection you can be damn sure that he's not gonna be talked about like an "outsider" or a "businessman" like he was in 2016 but rather as a criminal. even garbage outlets like the New York Times and CNN are referring to him that way now. he'll probably still win the nomination but I just don't think he has any chance in the general

I think, per epistantophus's point, we're already missing how badly he lost yesterday morning around when he was heading over to court when the DC Circuit said 'lol no' to his attempt to stop a slew of various WH aides etc from testifying to the J6 grand jury. To give you an idea of how that played out, Ken Cuccinelli *already* went in yesterday afternoon to answer questions as a result -- Trump didn't even try to appeal to the Supreme Court, and two to one we're going to hear about a lot more people going on (not to mention members of his own Secret Service detail in the documents case on Friday, and then there's Good Ol' Mike Pence, etc.). I read all his (lack of) energy yesterday and playing the hits at a briefer speech last night -- along with his returning to venting spleen about defunding the DOJ and FBI via social media -- as adding to all that.

to frogbs' point:

The counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington — collectively known as the WOW counties — have been the centerpiece of any Republican victory in Wisconsin for decades.

But they brought mostly bad news for Republicans on Tuesday.

The counties, which surround Milwaukee, have been emblematic of the shift in the state during the Trump era. They collectively have not voted for a Democrat for president since Lyndon Johnson, but have gradually trended more Democratic over the last decade.

On Tuesday, former state Supreme Court Justice Dan Kelly was still on track to win all three of those crucial counties. But the margins continue to shrink for Republicans there — a bright red, flashing warning side for the GOP ahead of the 2024 elections.

Notably, Protasiewicz came dangerously close to outright winning in Ozaukee County, trailing Kelly by roughly five points in a county that Mitt Romney won by roughly 30 points a decade ago.

And perhaps even more concerning for Republicans: A special election for a red-leaning state Senate seat in the WOW counties on Tuesday is a nailbiter. Should Jodi Habush Sinykin, the Democratic candidate, eventually pull off the win, it would flip the seat for Democrats — and prevent Republicans from picking up a supermajority in the state Senate.

Tuesday’s election brought even more good news for Democrats elsewhere in the state.

Dane County, which is home to Madison, is one of the fastest growing regions. The area saw incredibly high turnout on Tuesday for a spring off-year election — and Protasiewicz won the county by a lopsided margin. The area is quickly turning into Democrats’ mini blue wall in the state.

AFAIC, him dragging out his base for as long as possible and his various wannabe rivals and regional bootlickers all trying to pretend he's worthy of defense is absolutely worth it at this point. Lots of wasted time, energy, money (seriously, at a certain point that's going to turn into no more than a steady tap flow at best, and likely not even that) and that's fine with me.

To give you an idea of how that played out, Ken Cuccinelli *already* went in yesterday afternoon to answer questions as a result -- Trump didn't even try to appeal to the Supreme Court

wow, I totally missed this. that's huge

also can I point out that Janet Protasiewicz won by over 11 points here yesterday in the swing state of Wisconsin and from what I can gather a lot of that had to do with the fact that if Kelly won the state would be turbofucked into permanent Republican control. that sort of thing really does seem to turn voters off (or at least drive up turnout on the other side) so I can only imagine what having Trump on the ballot again would do.

xpost It is! And it went under the radar precisely because of the spectacle, but don't ignore it in the slightest.

The size of Protasiewicz's victory astounded me, actually.

Notably, Protasiewicz came dangerously close to outright winning in Ozaukee County

that's where my Mom used to live and it's about as Trumpy an area as I've seen here, seems like really bad news for them

in lieu of a trial, Trump is going to request a Wild West duel at 10 paces, and will realize at the 8th pace that he has no idea how to shoot a gun.

it would astound me if any of you could spell her name from memory.

I can after two Negronis.