A question about climate change/global warming.

Remember how some people would say the worst effects of climate change are in the global South and that Europe wouldn't be affected like anywhere near as hard but in the last year you see things like European river levels dropping off. This is from Spain.

There’s drought - and then there’s a super drought! 60% of the Spanish countryside is bone dry. Groundwater eventually runs out - then what..Wheat and barley crops are likely to fail entirely in four regions- & summer yet to come. pic.twitter.com/91mz8sYopf

— Peter Dynes (@PGDynes) April 16, 2023

Global South is getting the worst of it for sure but we are going to see bigger effects in Europe pretty fast. All bets are off if water and food supplies are fucked.

Lol @ this climate scientist. Does he have a mansion on the hill with solar panels?

I hope I am wrong and others may see things differently, but I am expecting effective societal collapse by mid-century, and planning - for my partner and I and our kids - accordingly.https://t.co/ZkZyaR9uBh

— Bill McGuire (@ProfBillMcGuire) September 13, 2023

It all depends on what you imagine "effective societal collapse" looks like. If you imagine it looks like the zombie apocalypse, then 'planning accordingly' feels like a joke. If it looks like the breakdown of globalism, food shortages, crumbling infrastructure, electrical brownouts, an increase in regional wars, high unemployment, more poverty and scavenging, increased but not universal violence, corrupt police states flourishing, and other similar outcomes, then some measure of planning and adaptation cold be very helpful, if only to set correct expectations and strengthen one's mental resilience and skill set.

Yeah. I guess so. I interpreted this as the Wikipedia definition so I don’t understand his use of “societal collapse” to describe the possible consequence of a global problem. What society is he talking about?

FWIW, I think Damian Carrington, author of the article Bill McGuire quotes, uses the more accurate description: “extinction.”

Extinction at "mid-century" seems far too rapid by even the most alarmist standards, so whatever McGuire thinks "effective societal collapse" means, it feels like it's probably not "extinction". The physical fact of 8,000,000,000 living humans constitute a formidable barrier to extinction within a few decades from climate change alone.

"then some measure of planning and adaptation cold be very helpful, if only to set correct expectations and strengthen one's mental resilience and skill set."

Not sure what form this takes. Name things you can do on your own.

Agree "extinction" in twenty years is alarmist.

I don't know about extinction, and none of this is my area of expertise at all, but personally I'm expecting some form of collapse within the next 10-15 years. Considering how fast climate change has moved in the past decade, and how much it's accelerating from year to year, and how fragile all of our interconnected systems are, plus the potential for catastrophic events like the collapse of the insect population or the Gulf Stream stopping, it seems unlikely that we'll make it to mid-century with anything like the civilization we have now. Don't really see any way to plan for it, though. I haven't given much thought to saving for retirement because I don't expect to get there.

I feel that we will probably see in the next five years in the UK:

- Certain types of food shortages
- A fairly catastrophic flood event
- More 40 degree days, more deaths due to heat among the old and poor
- Potential energy crisis, affecting ability to fan and cool your space. So this affects everyone.

That last one is pure speculation. The first three are based on current trends.

Name things you can do on your own.

Learn how to sew and repair clothes.
Acquire some simple non-power hand tools.
Get to know your neighbors.
Practice walking longer distances than you usually walk.
Acquire a bicycle and know how to maintain it.
Know what you'd do in a catastrophic flood, fire, or similar event.
Keep thinking clearly.

all good suggestions, would also add farming/plant skills there

stolen from lucifer's hammer: get a hardcover copy of 'the way things work' and keep it in a ziploc bag

hardcover copy of 'the way things work'

Practical skills and tools are very worthwhile acquisitions, but for me the most important item on my list is keep thinking clearly.

As I understand the world, humans survive very poorly in the absence of a stable shared society of some kind. As the stability of our very large social organization breaks down and can no longer solve the immediate problems of survival, it will elevate the necessity of forming new, more reliable (if smaller and more local) social alliances and finding new modes of stability.

The more quickly the older social contract is shattered, the more drastically those new social compacts will be stressed and the more likely they'll atomize into smaller and smaller groupings. Having practical skills and tools will make things not just easier for yourself, but make you a far more valuable ally in any group you join, but thinking clearly in the face of those stresses will help even more.

One takeway from Kim Stanley Robinson's The Ministry For The Future that stood out to me was that even after millions of people dying in climate-related events, nothing really began to pick up until Crash Day - when in the 2030s 60 passenger jets are crashed by drones, then container ships and meat farming are targeted until in the 2040s air travel ends and meat eating declines.

i honestly didn't get past the first chapter, which is harrowing as fuck

It is harrowing as fuck, but the book is somewhat hopeful and offers some kind of pathway that isn't exercises in prepping and doomerism.

iirc that book makes a pretty convincing argument that "adaptation" to climate change will not be an option for millions and millions of people

KSR sounds amazing. Have to read that book.

I also didn't make it much past the first chapter, though I skimmed ahead some. It hadn't been that long since the heat dome in the PNW when I tried to read it, so it was all horrifyingly easy to imagine.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/15/spain-water-barcelona-farmers-tourism-catalonia-drought

We are getting our answers

Burundi’s capital has been under heavy flood and landslide for over a week now. Many areas affected include Kibenga, Gatumba, Kajaga and so on. Thousands of people forced to flee their homes fearing for their lives. The govt of Burundi & the @UN launched a call for financial aid. pic.twitter.com/4vPyEsjfe7

— African News feed. (@africansinnews) April 21, 2024