Donald Trump: Classic or Dud?

I wish I had your certainty. He’s not going to win, he’ll get decisively fewer votes, but my fear is all the states working very hard to disenfranchise voters and change the rules so he can’t lose.

One thing that doesn’t make sense to me —

In the final days of his administration, as he promoted “stop the steal,” he seemed to have alienated everyone who even seemed halfway serious. His team consisted of clowns like giuliani and sidney powell. He could hardly find anyone to represent him in the impeachment case.

And yet now it seems plausible that he could pull off the kind of mass disenfranchisement he fantasized about before. I guess it is the GOP doing it at the state level — various loosely affiliated actors — but inspired by his obsession with voting laws.

Grab a drink, folx.

Done, your lordship

Disenfranchisement is a republican priority overall because it is easier than finding a popular platform that also pushes as much money as possible into the pockets of the richest people.

I dunno how plausible it is really. I mean he lost pretty badly in 2020 and that was before Jan 6, before the arrest, before the sexual assault judgement, before all the other things we know are coming soon. Trumpy candidates are constantly getting their asses kicked. idk how conditions are gonna get any better for him in the next 18 months.

An inspired act of god should happen here

he could still win but prob needs circumstances to break pretty hard his way, he and his movement are weak dems need to go on offense really kick these freaks asses

I think an economy dip near the election, Biden having a Diane Feinstein moment, China/North Korea rattling their swords especially loudly, etc could be the circumstance that tips it.

An inspired act of god should happen here

― omar little

how's your mousse

Nothing's a sure thing until election day is over and the votes are all in, but Trump fatigue is a real thing among vaguely Republican-leaning voters. Nothing will shake loose his fanbase voters, so it's a good bet he has a lock on the nomination. We'll all be sick, sick, sick of him before Nov. 2024. I'll just rely on him having worn out his welcome with 60% of the electorate and the campaign will only remind everyone of that very forcefully.

he could always drop dead at a rally, let's stay positive here

i.e. omar otm, sorry I am slow

Nothing's a sure thing until election day is over and the votes are all in, but Trump fatigue is a real thing among vaguely Republican-leaning voters.
― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Wednesday, May 10, 2023 7:45 PM

I just hope Biden fatigue doesn't rear its ugly head among vaguely Democratic-leaning voters.

this could perhaps be a very low turnout election. in either or both directions

it's too bad DeSantis and Trump don't like each other any more, that they couldn't be on the same train that derails in a fiery ball

there haven't really been low turnout elections in the last 7 years. I think things will get very crazy again this time next year.

2020 was never going to be low turnout because Democrats were amped up to get Trump out of office since basically November of 2016. many of those people will still be motivated af to turn up in 2024. but progressives who are seeing states carrying out attempts at LGBTQ+ erasure, unhindered whatsoever by having a D in the White House, might be disheartened or focus more of their efforts on state-level elections and ballot initiatives than voting for President.

(of course this is spitballing, and it could also continue the same trend and be the largest vote share in history...who knows. I have given up predicting things since 2016)

when Trump is on TV 24/7 again I think they'll be just as amped up, maybe even more so since he's basically promised to make it illegal to vote Democrat

Yall are out of your minds— voting against this pussy-grabbing sentient swastika is quite literally the only reason many people will vote in 2024. I hate him and want him destroyed, and there are millions of people like me.

otm

Millions of independents who left him 2018, 2020, and 2022 are not going to run into his arms again, especially when he claims victory for Roe's overruling.

Table speaks truth, but it is simultaneously true that there is still a sizable chunk of people
for whom voting FOR the pussy-grabbing sentient swastika is a motivator. Owning the libs and whatnot.

The more you tell them not to do a thing, the more they will want to do it. In my dark fantasies I try to come up with ways to convince them that "the woke libs" don't want them to walk off ledges and die horribly.

So. To be clear: Walk off a ledge, MAGANauts, it's the best way to own the woke libs. I would be SO TOTALLY OWNED.

2020 was never going to be low turnout because Democrats were amped up to get Trump out of office since basically November of 2016. many of those people will still be motivated af to turn up in 2024.

would be cool to get young voters interested by not running the eighty-something incumbent whose popularity level never rises above "eh"

otm

sure but we all had that concern in 2020 too and he got the most votes ever so I guess at the end of the day keeping Trump out of office is a pretty strong motivator

imo one of the biggest factors is that people are just really fucking sick of him, sick of him driving the news constantly and putting himself at the center of everything, to the point where even professional sports were all about Trump. that first debate between him and Biden made a lot of people sick to their stomach and it kinda felt like that was the point where his shtick just stopped being entertaining

His only chance of winning would be if he was running against a doddery dithery old fossil who, when he talks, looks like he might not make it to the end of the sentence ... oh, hold on a minute ...

C'mon man, Biden still shows flashes of wit. And besides, America voted for the obviously sundowning Reagan twice.

are we gonna argue this again

did we ever stop?

I'm not saying it's wise to field Biden in 2024 or that he doesn't have doddery moments or even that he's a good president, but I saw this clip earlier this week and he doesn't seem doddery or dithery. This seems a firm and fair a putdown of a reporter regurgitating Republican talking points.

just catching up on this exchange from Biden's news conference yesterday where he grilled a reporter to specify to him what spending cuts McCarthy is actually proposing pic.twitter.com/Ipyd7eOZvD

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 10, 2023

I realize this doesn't say much about the Democratic Party, but I genuinely don't know who would be a more viable general election candidate than Biden. It's not like there's someone obvious waiting in the wings who can instantly generate enthusiasm.

would be cool to get young voters interested by not running the eighty-something incumbent whose popularity level never rises above "eh"

This is an amazing idea! And it'll totally work, since we've got something like 50 great candidates to put up instead, all of whom have broad popular and media appeal and better policy ideas than Biden...oh, wait.

xp

Biden's fine for an 80-year-old man who is slowing down. He will be the nominee. He may die in office; if so, then Kamala Harris will be the next president. I lose no sleep over any of this.

Usually you'd say that the candidate who ran a strong second-place primary campaign in the last two elections would be the obvious successor, but he's older than Biden.

No one in the known universe is excited about Joe, but I am also not hearing a compelling alternative

Actually, that's a sharp clip, stevie. There he is at his best.

This Hamilton Nolan column is a journalist's fantasy. It's such a fantasy, in fact, that I'm surprised Nolan (a writer I have occasionally thought was pretty smart and on-his-game) didn't end with "and then you just punch him right in his fat face and he dies and you are loved forever, by the American people and especially your dad!" The simple fact is that journalists who are not servile bootlickers Don't Get In The Room With The President (or the ex-president). The real takeaway from last night's shitshow was not the person flinging the shit. It was the people who had their arms and mouths wide open to catch it all. They're not ex-presidents; they're not ex-anything. They live in your neighborhood, and they are *far* more dangerous to this country than he is, because he's not gonna be re-elected. He was elected on a wave of "I hate that bitch, and anyway, how bad could he be?" And then we spent four years, stretching into seven years now, finding out. He will not be re-elected. But his shit-eating cult members are out there. (I'm probably surrounded by more of them as I type these words than I've ever been in my life.) They're not going away.

Actually, that's a sharp clip, stevie. There he is at his best.

I genuinely think he could peel off a few faithful Republican voters in this mode, which is what is necessary to fend off a Trump win, which is necessary for the future of the US, the world. Biden definitely has copious shortcomings but maybe there's a way to engage with those without regurgitating Trump talking points.

Trump lost in 2020 (and lost de facto in 2022) because Biden peeled away enough independents scared of Trump.

I can't imagine that a Trump campaign based on "Actually, I won last time" is going to win over any independents either

necessary for the future of the world

Can’t wait for him to put even more periods on his ending of oil and gas drilling on federal land

Trump lost in 2020 (and lost de facto in 2022) because Biden peeled away enough independents scared of Trump.

This is doubtless true but I worry that as the media embraces Trump again in a way they haven't since 2020, so he might be redeemed in some voters' eyes.

Can’t wait for him to put even more periods on his ending of oil and gas drilling on federal land

I'm not saying it's wise to field Biden in 2024 or that he doesn't have doddery moments or even that he's a good president

But also I'm more interested in that as a progressive critique that "LOL he's old"

This is doubtless true but I worry that as the media embraces Trump again in a way they haven't since 2020, so he might be redeemed in some voters' eyes.

I'm pretty misanthropic but I don't believe most people have the memories of goldfish.

the media legitimizing Trump seemes like something that would've been a bigger probem in 2016, when people still stupidly thought there might be something behind the facade. even the "home run" town hall he did yesterday was primarily just him defending himself..."its a witch hunt", "that woman is a liar", "I did nothing wrong", etc. etc....I don't think that's exactly a winning message. you have to at least be able to pretend it's about inflation or "economic anxiety" or whatever. can't even do the freedom angle when your party is constantly in the news for trying to strip them away.

Biden beat Trump because he told him to shut up in the televised debate is how I break it down. If he remembers to do that again, he'll win again

I believe that