Donald Trump: Classic or Dud?

But those probably aren't mentioned in the Constitution

xxxxxpost actually, it doesn't! one or more appellate courts could overturn his criminal trial conviction. or a state Supreme Court that skews conservative acknowledging his conviction but finding bullshit rationale to suggest this conviction doesn't rise to insurrection as defined in the 14th amendment?

none of this is cut and dried

anyway, as I said earlier, this is largely moot in terms of "this is bad for Dems" because the voters who filed this lawsuit were largely Republican.

It at least strengthens the argument!

if Trump is disqualified from the Arizona primary and some other states follow suit, wouldn't that increase the odds of Nikki Haley taking up the running? She seems fairly wretched and I heard a MNCBC pundit (fwiw) saying some polling has suggested she'd do better against Biden than Trump would.

I personally think the Colorado decision is both justified and hilarious, and I'm happy for it to be thrown to SCOTUS to make those fuckers squirm. Fuck you is right. And no there's no universe in which any of this is "better" for Trump. All of the bad things are bad for Trump! That they don't seem to hurt him with his lunatic base just makes them seem more loony. And yes I still want him to lose again in the actual election, but I'll also be perfectly happy for SCOTUS to yeet him from the ballot if they so choose.

The Bulwark sums up the attitude I'm seeing in lots of places, is run by war criminals

has this been proven in a court of law?

Sadly, Bill Kristol could probably run for President

I can endorse that view, tipsy.

I just want to vote against this fucker one more time.

xxp

Don't blame me, I voted for f. hazel's 10-year old son.

I heard a MNCBC pundit (fwiw) saying some polling has suggested she'd do better against Biden than Trump would.

nah. Trump is a brand and has a stanbase, that's the shit you don't wanna go up against; his base does not give a shit what he does or did, they're #teamtrump forever. normal politicians you can beat with a good ground game, he's bulletproof with a giant percentage of the american electorate. any other candidate is to be preferred both tactically and practically.

PBKR, it isn’t clear that Trump will be defeated by Biden. Not a single person I know outside of ILX plans on voting for Biden or Trump. Biden truly has lost many people on the left.

the "left"

all this drama and fight only makes the martyr more beloved

if Trump is disqualified from the Arizona primary and some other states follow suit, wouldn't that increase the odds of Nikki Haley taking up the running? She seems fairly wretched and I heard a MNCBC pundit (fwiw) saying some polling has suggested she'd do better against Biden than Trump would.

― vodkaitamin effrtvescent (calzino), Wednesday, 20 December 2023 16:23 (six minutes ago) link

I'm going pretty much totally on feels here, but I do kinda generally wonder if removing Trump from the ballot wouldn't ultimately help the GOP. Trump has a fervent base but, with the number of Republicans likely to abstain from voting and the number of people voting for Biden simply to keep Trump out of office, I'm not convinced that his base is enough to get him re-elected (by legitimate means). Whereas it seems like pretty much any other GOP presidential candidate would get overwhelming support from the party-at-large (maybe less so from the most frothy Trumpites) plus plenty of independent votes, and the turnout for Biden would likely be much lower without the looming threat of Trump Mk. 2.

Colorado's primary (Super Tuesday) is March 5th, 2024. Trump's trial in DC for election interference activities begins March 4th. There is absolutely no way to have that case resolved by then.

to get to trial, the case required a lengthy House Committee hearing due to the sheer volume of witnesses to question and obstruction and obfuscation from Republican Congress, Trump and his lawyers. A special counsel investigation then had to follow that, before the Grand Jury decided to indict.

all this is to say that prosecuting a former President for crimes, which is unprecedented, is the type of thing that takes YEARS to even get to trial, not to mention the length of the trial itself. If you demand a guilty verdict in criminal court as a precursor for his expulsion from a primary ballot, then the President can basically participate in insurrection all he wants, because the clock will ALWAYS run out. What if he was to participate in an insurrection attempt one month before the actual election?

Not to mention, he's not on trial for 'insurrection' in these cases, he's charged with attempting to defraud American and its citizens through election interference and as such even with a conviction, his lawyers will try to argue that this does not rise to 'insurrection' as defined in the Constitution. they're already trying to argue this is a First Amendment matter (lol).

I still want him to lose again in the actual election, but I'll also be perfectly happy for SCOTUS to yeet him from the ballot if they so choose.

dream big, like me: he could die before the election.

Not sure what that’s supposed to mean, JCLC. Maybe you love watching Palestinian children get pulled from rubble as much as Joe Biden does, but most people I know will not vote for Genocide Joe

xxpost Another way to say this is that Trump is not even being prosecuted for "insurrection" because it's not obvious and not easy to prove.

Wow, tables, maybe stop with the completely needless and gross ad hominem bullshit.

Trump actually IS being prosecuted for insurrection, that's the election interference case.

Anyway I'm glad the CO court made this decision because it will force the SC to come up with a standard for something that hasn't really come up since the Reconstruction era.

xpost Not really.

The fact that people are running away from Biden in droves is part of what makes me so uneasy about this. It feels like liberals are celebrating some deus ex machina silver bullet because they're so demoralized and don't believe they can win for real. JiC's term "legal Hail Mary" was very much on point.

Wow, tables, maybe stop with the completely needless and gross ad hominem bullshit.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/d415a40c908c11417ac607a95c3a4c840967a508/206_0_3783_2270/master/3783.jpg

If Trump's off the ballot then Biden might not even run

There was something noticeably absent when the special counsel, Jack Smith, unsealed an indictment this week charging former President Donald J. Trump with multiple conspiracies to overturn the 2020 election: any count that directly accused Mr. Trump of being responsible for the violence his supporters committed at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Sure, but that's still what the whole case is built around — his attempts to overturn the election. You can call it whatever you want, but if he's convicted on those counts it would definitely bolster the "insurrection" legal argument.

Insurrection is defined by violence

I personally think the Colorado decision is both justified and hilarious, and I'm happy for it to be thrown to SCOTUS to make those fuckers squirm.

they're going to overturn it and they're not going to squirm while doing so. this is a waste of time.

Sweet!

The fact that people are running away from Biden in droves is part of what makes me so uneasy about this. It feels like liberals are celebrating some deus ex machina silver bullet because they're so demoralized and don't believe they can win for real.

I think liberals will vote for Biden; the people table references, I have the same friends, they're not gonna vote for any Democrat who they can't imagine as a member of DSA. they were lost already, they're just madder now because Biden is fucking up the Palestine situation so bad -- but they were already disseminating plenty of right-wing propaganda on Biden, helping the right win elections has been one of the putative American left's projects for decades. my point, table, is that those people aren't leftists, they're accelerationists.

xposts

I dunno I'm not a lawyer, but if you're looking for preponderance of evidence of insurrectionary activity I think that case is pretty strong! Four Colorado justices think he's guilty of insurrection even without that, I think a conviction in that case would add more weight to it.

Wow, tables, maybe stop with the completely needless and gross ad hominem bullshit.

Or we are people who actually dare to want something better than the current rot. Your “clear-eyed” view is just nihilism, afaic.

I want something better every time I vote in a primary.

Again viewing this as a Dem Hail Mary is inaccurate as this was a REPUBLICAN VOTER initiated lawsuit. Dems may be happy about it but have nothing to do with it.

Biden's polling numbers are certainly going to improve, much like Ralph Nader in 2000, who posted poll numbers in double digits before winding up at something like 2.5%, third party independent voters with significant backing often overperform in polls before the primaries because the election is an afterthought and people are more likely to reach for the stars or troll with third parties. So his share is probably greatly overstated in any polls.

Turnout is also important and that's harder to predict. It definitely isn't a slam dunk Biden will win, but taking polls this far out as a foregone conclusion is silly.

If economy keeps improving and inflation keeps slowing, that will win voters back. But yes I'd rather have Trump drop dead so we don't have to find out.

Xposts

I wish I had someone better to vote for in a primary. Or that Biden would die or not run again, but I'm afraid the party mandarins would decree Harris the new nominee, then all is lost.

Maybe I'll write in my primary ballot "the Ghost of FDR" or Gretchen Whitmer.

xxpost I think the lawsuit was to get Trump off the Republican primary ballot in CO, so the Dems wouldn't have had standing anyway

Saw a breakdown that for what it is worth, all seven of those justices at the Colorado Supreme Court were apparently appointed by Democrats, so even among the seven there was not a unanimous consensus. We are so beyond the realm of right and wrong, we are at best teetering on the brink of what is remotely achievable. Like, hypothetical law, because the black and white of it has barely held for the last few years. That's why it's a hail Mary. It can say explicitly in the Constitution that people named Trump are forbidden from running and it would still be a hail Mary these days, imo.

xpost it also included unaffiliated voters, who also aren't allowed to vote in the primary, though

Haley does poll better against Biden than Trump does, but I'd bet that's in large part because she's a lesser-known quantity whom voters don't have a strong opinion about. Right now, she polls well against Biden simply because she's neither Biden nor Trump. For a challenger to an incumbent, that may well be enough to win, but it's also way too early to tell since she's never been at the center of a national campaign.

xpost I mean, 6 members of the highest court in the land were appointed by Republicans and any questions of their legitimacy get responses of "cry more", soooooooooooo

I'm voting in the primary only to signal the presence of liberals in Tennessee. I'd be happy to sit it out otherwise, but I want our lack of proportional representation on the record. So that's what my vote is for. Biden is just the name next to the bubble. Voting and not voting can mean lots of different things, and we can define them for ourselves.

As I understand it, the U.S. is pretty much the only country where parties even allow voters to choose their general-election nominees. Anywhere else, Dean Phillips wouldn't even be on the ballot!

lol thinking that in addition to the "Trump's gonna win" containment thread we're going to need one for "Leftists who refuse to vote for Biden/don't try to change our minds" thread. Or we're gonna have this argument nonstop for 10 months.

That would be the "Leftists howling into the void because the world refuses their gift of sanity" thread.

you misspelled "grift"