Donald Trump: Classic or Dud?

isn't allowing the people to vote for the end of democracy actually THE REAL DEMOCRACY? be real sheeple.

Sneer about “the Resistance” all you want, but

what would it be like if we all got to call BS

Institutions are supposed to deliver what they were designed for. In the case of our laws and legal institutions their declared intent is to deliver impartial justice arrived at through democratic legislative institutions and impartial courts. Obviously the NYT thinks that calling on the institutions of governance to perform their various obligations is the same as "searching for magic bullets". I guess the NYT is pushing the idea that our government, our laws and our institutions can't or won't do their job and it is foolish of anyone to think they will. Great editorial position there, NYT!

FWIW... from Politico:

‘The Opposite of Politics’: A Conservative Legal Scholar Says Kicking Trump Off the Ballot Is ‘Unassailable’

J. Michael Luttig explains why he thinks the 14th Amendment should prevent Trump from running for president again.

You’ve said you’re confident that the Supreme Court will uphold the Colorado ruling. What’s the source of your confidence?

Luttig: I’m always exceedingly careful with my word choice in public on profound matters of great importance. What I have said is that I am confident that the Supreme Court would affirm Colorado Supreme Court’s decision based upon the objective law, which in this instance is Section 3 of the 14th amendment. Which is to say that I know that the Colorado Supreme Court decision is unassailable in every single respect under the Constitution of the United States.

exceedingly careful

the Colorado Supreme Court decision is unassailable in every single respect under the Constitution of the United States.

The First Rule of SCOTUS Club is that the US Constitution says what you say it says. What a Colorado court says it says is just their opinion.

i mean it's not unassailable according to 3/7 judges on the colorado supreme court

I don't think anyone should be barred from running/removed from ballots for any reason. I don't see that as an effective measure to stop anything/anyone bad - if a plurality or majority of an electorate wish to elect John Wayne Gacy, preventing them from voting for John Wayne Gacy isn't going to resolve the underlying issue - and runs parallel to my objection to stripping felons of the vote, etc..

I don't think felons should be barred from running for office but like if the crime was trying to overthrow the government that seems like one you ought to make an exception for. like if a doctor committed a felony by deliberately overprescribing his friends I'd say that dude probably shouldn't be able to work in the pharmacy either. but he could still become a Senator or be like Dr. Oz or something

That Detroit News story, which I came here to post, seems bad for Trump?

Yeah, that seems more straightforwardly illegal than his role in j6 shenanigans...

They'll get right on it. Pencil the first hearing for 2029.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/27/us/colorado-supreme-court-trump.html
http://media.aclj.org/pdf/Colorado-Republican-State-Central-Committee-v.-Anderson-Cert-Petition-PDFA_Redacted.pdf

the CO GOP is first to ask the supreme court to appeal the disqualification of trump from the ballot. in their petition they frame the case like this:

Whether the President falls within the list of officials subject to the disqualification provision of Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment

Whether Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment is self-executing to the extent of allowing states to remove candidates from the ballot in the bsence of any Congressional action authorizing such process

Whether the denial to a political party of its ability to choose the candidate of its choice in a presidential primary and general election violates that party’s First Amendment Right of Association

i think they’d have a better case just begging roberts for trump’s constitutional right to a mulligan rly but it will work somehow maybe

the first two are much stronger arguments than the third. the third is laughable

"not being able to nominate a 12 year old middle schooler violates our First Amendment Rights"
"not being able to nominate a dead clown violates our First Amendment Rights"
"not being able to nominate someone who was born and lived in France and moved here 2 months ago violates our First Amendment rights"

I’m actually mad I can’t vote for someone born and raised in France and only moved here 2 months ago

"But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability."

I find this pretty persuasive as to the intent as to self execution. i mean if ever an exception proved a rule ffs there it is

I find the argument that the President is actually not "an officer of the United States" to be even more ridiculous than the 1st Amendment one. they probably do have a point that Congress ought to be involved, though I would argue that half of Congress is explicitly pro-insurrection, so we shouldn't give a fuck what they think either. but we all know the ball always bounces Trump's way so whatever, nothing's gonna happen

I mean, Trump hasn't exactly avoided consequences in the years since he's left office. when he doesn't have the means of controlling the arms that are investigating him, he doesn't do so well.

in this particular case, it's not a nothingburger what happened either, but SCOTUS just doesn't have to do much to undo it, just refer it back to the lower court ruling.

it almost would help Republicans more to just let it ride, throw up their hands, oh, we would have nominated Trump, but corrupt justices made it impossible, so we're reluctantly nominating this other person, but don't worry, they will bring back Trump's agenda! and fundraise off of it.

I mean...they wouldn't win doing this either, but I feel like Trump's polling numbers are probably peaking right now and he's due for a major backslide next year and after he gets the nomination, especially after the latest economic data that just dropped.

polling largely stopped for the year a week and a half ago so we'll have to see what the next set shows.

the general pattern with Trump seems to be that his approval numbers are not awful during periods where he's mostly out of the news, once he wins the nomination there will probably be a lot more attention paid to him openly promising to be a dictator and saying shit like "may all liberals ROT in HELL!!". feel like once again we're gonna test if people's hatred of Trump is gonna win out vs. their indifference/dislike of Biden, idk seems like it'll probably work, especially because there is a pretty convincing argument to be made that America is essentially over if he wins again

This coming year will be unbearable

oh it's going to be completely garbage and i'm not looking forward to it since this year was pretty much the worst of my life. but hey maybe we pull off another miracle

And, lo, gigantic TRUMP flags will emerge upon many a Dodge Ram pickup and yacht flotilla and fill the land with tumult and the owning of libs by invincible stupidity.

2024 is gonna suck no doubt but I’ve also come to realize that a big part of what made 2016-2020 so unbearable was just being on Twitter all the time. So I’m almost thankful to Elon for killing it. The reality is federal government shit doesn’t matter a whole lot in my life, not as much as local issues like who wins school board, obviously this is because I’m in a privileged group and I’m very sorry to those who are not but I think it’s important that everyone finds a way to stay sane through all this. My advice is to cut as many of the freaks out of your life as you can. I was so miserable trying to reason with certain people in my family who really did believe everyone smarter than them in any subject was full of shit, once you recognize it as the no-win situation it actually is it’s a lot easier to navigate.

Of course I may be delusional but I’m not completely freaked out because I really don’t think Trump has what it takes to actually overthrow the entire government. He’s gonna hurt a lot of people out of incompetence but I really do think this country’s come too far to turn into a fascist hellhole overnight

And, lo, gigantic TRUMP flags will emerge upon many a Dodge Ram pickup and yacht flotilla and fill the land with tumult and the owning of libs by invincible stupidity.

― more difficult than I look (Aimless),

Where I live "will" has nothing to do with it.

the government has already been overthrown, nobody is actually running things anymore

What do you mean, I’m right here. But my messages keep getting ignored.

Of course I may be delusional but I’m not completely freaked out because I really don’t think Trump has what it takes to actually overthrow the entire government. He’s gonna hurt a lot of people out of incompetence but I really do think this country’s come too far to turn into a fascist hellhole overnight

kind of ignores the last 43 years dunnit?

And, lo, gigantic TRUMP flags will emerge upon many a Dodge Ram pickup and yacht flotilla and fill the land with tumult and the owning of libs by invincible stupidity.

Reporting from blood-red rural Montana, I am not seeing any Trump gear or bumper stickers or anything anywhere. Nor do I ever hear anyone talking politics in a loud, "I dare you to shut me up" voice, which is almost always a sign of a Trumpoid. When people talk politics around here they're complaining about local stuff — most people, including Republicans, really, really hate the governor, because he's done shit like raise their property taxes a lot and express the desire to put public lands up for sale. I would not be at all surprised if Montana has a Democratic governor a year from now — the D candidate is a former gun company executive whose position on social issues mostly boils down to "mind your own goddamn business." Which is a very winning message in the West.

Yeah Gianforte is a true grade A asshole - would love to see him out on his ear.

I have noticed that all the MAGA bumper stickers/hats/lawn signs which stayed up since 2021 have now come down, surely a lot will come back once the election season really starts up but I also wonder if the hundred felonies and open embrace of fascist language is gonna affect how these fuckers present themselves in public. Especially as virtually every Republican I know has lost friends and family ties over it. I still maintain the idea that 90% of Republican voters really don’t like Trump, but the other 10% are 10x as loud. They’ll still vote him though, in part because every other candidate is so pathetic, in part because they probably think he’s the only guy who can win

the last time I spotted a Trump flag on a pickup truck was a couple months ago and it ended up actually being a Taylor Swift flag

Trump,

we are never ever ever getting back together

Love,

America

"Stop calling me."

the thing is authoritarians generally come into power when domestic conditions are legitimately bad, and no matter how much rightwing media spins it as such things are simply not that bad right now. unemployment is low, gas prices are low, the stock market is high, and inflation has stalled. yes there are a lot of people struggling but it's not like the levels we saw in 2008 or 2020. and even if "I alone can fix the economy" is a winning message, that's not the message Trump is sending out right now. there's really nothing in Trump's "platform" that's claiming it's gonna make anyone's life better, he's skipped directly to revenge and fascism and "rooting out the vermin". this isn't like 2016 where moderates still saw him as a harmless bozo, or even like 2020 where a lot of voters still thought he was all talk when it came to his inevitable attempts to steal the election. despite Biden's historic unpopularity and inability to excite anyone (not to mention how bad he's fucking up the Gaza situation) I still don't see how Trump is gonna do better this time around if he's gonna run as even more psycho and unpleasant than he was four years ago. yes I know the polls are worrying right now but I also know the way nearly every election since 2016 has gone. obviously a lot can change between now and then and anything can happen when the incumbant is as unpopular as Biden is but idk I'm not calling this a lock for Trump the way a lot of my friends are.

The first, last and best service Trump could do for humanity is to die.

Assassinations never happen anymore it’s awful.

I don't want anyone to go to jail for killing him. His heart must be the size of a canned ham, surely it will just blow up one of these days.

His parents lived to 88 and 93, their hearts fuelled like his by hostility and terror

The preservative power of bitterness and venom.

Reporting from blood-red rural Montana, I am not seeing any Trump gear or bumper stickers or anything anywhere. Nor do I ever hear anyone talking politics in a loud, "I dare you to shut me up" voice

I am also fond of Montana and think it's generally thought of in a 2D way by people who haven't been here, but this is what the 2020 Montana presidential map looked like.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1e/Montana_Presidential_Election_Results_2020.svg/2560px-Montana_Presidential_Election_Results_2020.svg.png

Unperson denied none of that, though.

Tbf most state maps look kinda like that

You are quite otm and have been repeating a variation of your post to typically terrified Dems.

Been thinking about the dynamics of Biden v Trump and the novelty of an election where the winner definitely only has one term. I think Trump catastrophists — of which I can be one, in the right mood — underestimate the fading gravitational pull of lame-duck-hood. If Biden wins obviously he’s immediately yesterday’s news, he’s practically a lame duck right now. Trump less so because all the hoopla of changing administrations and all the batshit stuff he’ll do or try right off the bat. But especially if Congress is divided he won’t get MUCH done, apart from naming judges. And in any case the 2028 election basically starts immediately. I feel like Trump exhaustion sets in quickly whether he wins or loses.

Tbf most state maps look kinda like that

yeah this is true tbh

Many Trump catastrophists I know think elections will cease to exist come January '25.