hall of fame, next vote...

Outstanding

Curious how he figures that Halladay, Ortiz, and Ramirez had more career value than Beltre, Ortiz especially. I don't like reducing things to WAR, but Beltre's ahead of Ortiz in oWAR alone by 15 games, before you even get to defense. They all belong, but that's an odd formulation.

Forget it jack wtc

-etc

Forget it, Jake, it's Cooperstown.

(Just to flesh that out.)

I mean everyone he voted for I would certainly vote for but beltre absolutely raises the bar even within that small, highly qualified group.

Tony Massarotti also declined to vote for Beltre, who's 74/76 with almost 20% of the ballots in on the tracker.

Mauer is over 80% and Utley is below 50%, so things are looking good for Joe to come close at the very least. The remainder of the first-timers are toast, except for David Wright, who might get to 5%.

Things are trending pretty decently for Beltran, for the future ballots at least. Helton lost three votes vs two picked up, which is a little odd, but you figure he'll get in. Everything else is pretty status quo, lots of guys who gained a couple or lost a couple and are probably sticking around for another go.

weird thing, both guys who didn't vote for Beltre also *only* voted for Manny and A-Rod.

I noticed the second non-Beltre voter...How stupid is that? "I don't agree with freezing out PED players, so I'll punish Adrian Beltre and Todd Helton (and also not vote for Gary Sheffield) to make that clear. And get lots of attention for myself along the way."

Was yesterday the deadline? The Tracker is up to 93 ballots (26%):

Beltre - 98%
Mauer - 83%
Helton - 82%
Wagner - 79%
---------------
Sheffield - 73%
Beltran - 65%
Andruw - 64%

I'd be very surprised to see four guys go in--assume Wagner will drop.

2% and under: Bautista, Bartolo, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Holiday, Tori Hunter, V-Mart, Reyes, James Shields.

It looks like we're at 100 ballots now, if we include the seven anonymous/unverified. Mauer is outperforming at least my own expectations.

Mine too. If he holds over 80%, that'll be the clearest signal yet how much more peak value has come to be valued. Career value will continue to be the safer path for the foreseeable future, I'd say, but the gap seems to be narrowing. (A theory that is completely negated by Utley's mediocre showing thus far...)

I figure Mauer being a catcher gives him some extra credit, plus there are a lot of intangible and narrative factors that come into play with him that Utley doesn't have. I do think Utley deserves it on peak value though.

Bautista got his first vote. Big surprise: Richard Griffin, a Toronto guy. I'm glad--I didn't want to see him shut out.

also gave Wagner a vote.

Who continues to hold at 80%--a little surprised.

Joey Bats had more HOF caliber seasons than some HOFers. other than those seasons he didn't do enough, but he def deserves to get some honorary votes.

That's the difference between Bautista and Joe Carter, who exceeded Bautista in the traditional HR/RBI/BA metrics. Carter really didn't have a single HOF-caliber season, and had many that were just barely above replacement level; Bautista had at least two HOF seasons, and arguably a third.

I think he definitely had three, and a fourth if we count his 92 game season (over a full season I think he comes out close to 7.0 that year.)

I don't quite yet want to be all, "I've seen enough. Joe Mauer is elected with etc etc" but it's looking more and more like he'll get in this year.

I think he's in. That old thing about analytic voters declaring early and old-school guys holding off--because they didn't want to explain themselves on PEDs or traditional stats--I don't think that applies so much anymore.

maybe more surprising to me than Mauer doing this well (83% now) is he's doing a bit better than Helton (who has a net gain of zero votes with over 35% of the ballots revealed.)

I am actually bummed about Sheffield not making it. Even recognizing how he was absolutely a detriment in the field, as a hitter he was just about as dangerous as anyone during his peak. He just put up some absolutely sick statistics. I know there are some PED issues swirling around him, but I feel like it's a gray area in his case. I think what actually is hurting him is the nomadic path of his career, not being defined by any one team at all. And yet, everywhere he went he had one or two or more absolutely all time seasons. San Diego, Florida, L.A., Atlanta, NY. Just such a force.

Whats also hurting him is his relationship to the media

Your opening sentence made me think they released results today. He's not out of it yet--just shy of 75%.

Just looking at everything, he needed to pick up 70-something votes in order to make it. He's picked up 10 so far with a bit over 40% of the vote in. I hope I'm pleasantly shocked by an unprecedented late rally!

Basically knock 5-10% off of whatever the score is for the hidden ballots they always sink everything. It wouldnt surprise me if helton missed by single digits

i hope David Wright sticks around awhile, despite the brief career he's eminently more qualified than the likes of Vizquel, K-Rod, and probably Wagner tbh. he's a Mauer type in that respect, just an absolute monster at his position. But catchers have more allowance for a brief peak. his fellow Met Jose Reyes is getting zero support but he's probably just a step below Rollins.

Make of this as you will:

https://i.postimg.cc/1zB4Jm08/glove.jpg

Jones is at 71%, Hunter at 4.7%. Did Hunter win all those GG on reputation? Seems like a wider gap than it maybe should be.

I think Hunter was good in the field, but not really vastly superior to others. if you look at the metrics, Jones was an all-time great. I think where they were actually closer in terms of career value was at the plate, Jones had bigger numbers in a couple of huge years but I think Hunter wasn't far off in his all around offensive game.

two who are also pretty close are Rollins and Reyes. i don't see Rollins getting in, he's nowhere near, though 29 votes vs zero for Reyes is probably a bit unfair to the latter, who was really quite the player.

Just realized this is tomorrow. All I know for sure: Beltre is in, DeSantis is out...Agree with all that about Jones/Hunter (although I'm trusting the defensive metrics on blind faith). I think a 60/40 split, or 65/35 split, would be more reasonable than 71/5.

Mauer is really holding steady, he's been consistently one or two votes ahead of Helton. it's always hard to tell but for most candidates with credentials some might find borderline, there's usually a 6-7% drop from where the tracker finishes. I feel like Mauer is somewhere between 73-79% in the end. Wagner and Helton are cutting it close.

it's going to be crowded again next year, anywhere from a dozen to fifteen players returning, plus Suzuki in the Adrian Beltre 95%+ shoo-in role, Sabathia, Pedroia as an Utley type, Kinsler as the poor man's David Wright, and King Felix.

I anticipate being bummed out at how little support Felix is going to receive.

Can't share, but these are Posnanski's predictions (many obvious by this point):

Will Be Elected -- Beltre, Mauer, Helton
Will Just Miss -- Wagner, Sheffield
Coming Soon To a Hall of Fame Near You -- Jones, Beltran
Solidly on the Ballot Going Forward -- Utley, A-Rod, Manny (seems to think A-Rod will eventually go in, Manny "not ever, not by the writers nor by any veterans committee")
The 15% Club -- Rollins, Abreu, Pettitte, Vizquel
Will Make Another Ballot -- Buehrle, K-Rod, Hunter, Wright
Will Not Make the Ballot Next Year -- the rest

He came up with a fun thing yesterday, based on something his friend said: a player's Hock Score:

I’m going to talk a bit over the next couple of days about my friend Jon Hock’s Hall of Fame thought experiment, which he sent in to express his support for Thurman Munson’s Hall of Fame candidacy:

"Try this as a thought experiment: Imagine Munson’s plaque in the Gallery in Cooperstown, then imagine watching a day’s worth of fans passing through. Tell me, where would Munson’s plaque rank in terms of fans stopping a little bit longer, maybe removing their cap and saying something about him to their daughter or grandson? I’d say top ten or 15 in the entire Gallery."

I’m not entirely sure that Munson’s plaque would draw quite that kind of attention, but I love the concept: Which players’ plaques would stand out in the Hall of Fame plaque room? That’s a really interesting way of thinking about the Hall of Fame, emphasis on the word "fame."

I can say with some confidence, that if Bartolo Colón somehow made the Hall of Fame, he’d have a HUGE Hock Score.

Just to clarify, his predictions are not reflective of his own preferences--he voted for Manny, always has, and lobbies hard for him. But: "...and I can certainly live with that." ("That" being what I quoted above.)

i kinda think Wagner might make up enough ground to get in but it'll be a true squeaker. i also think he'll be the last closer to make it for an extremely long time and maybe that's appropriate.

Think this is the first time I've ever watched this live...hey, I'm live-blogging!

let's go

Jose Bautista just ran across the screen and did a bat-flip...not sure what that means.

You take the first one, Omar.

Beltre, Mauer...

aaaaand Helton!

Still majorly surprised that Mauer is a first-ballot guy. Not complaining, just surprised.

Beltre, Helton, Mauer, and that's it

You were like 30 seconds ahead of me, Thermo. Is St. Marys that deep in the woods?

gonna be curious to see those percentages. not surprised Wagner didn't make it.

does this mean Posey is going to be a first ballot guy now?!

Sheffield is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXP1MSFwMnc

Not sure how he'll fair with the VC, which is much the harder of the two to predict.

(Never doubted that Posey would be first-ballot, I guess because his career ended well rather than petering out--plus, obviously, the WS titles.)