Donald Trump: Classic or Dud?

his devoted followers didn't get him the election in 2016, duped Independents and Democrats did. and they fled in 2020. the people to target in 2024 are those same Independents to make sure they don't swing back to his side. nobody should give a fuck about his damn base

(not directed at you, Jon, just Moodles's point)

sometimes defeat is defeat

I think I was pretty clear: they do this stuff to prop up Trump and give them grievances to air out to the press and public. It's not going to do a single thing to help them in this trial, but not best way to look at these tactics is from a political POV rather than a legal one.

'tactics'

xxxp

I mean, that may well be true, I'm not trying to say this is a smart tactic or is going to win them the election, just that this is what they are attempting

and they fled in 2020.

Perhaps, but...

2016
62,985,106 votes

2020
74,224,319 votes

I, and the rest of this thread, know that, and we have known that for the last 7 years. this is why I'm talking about being bored of the discussion. we know there's an ulterior motive to everything he and his lawyers do. I don't see the need to bring it up. ever since he's been out of office (and hell, during his last few months in office), almost everything he's tried has failed.

however - it should be noted that his own lawyer can suffer professional consequences as many of his other lawyers have, and she should care about not doing things that could get her sanctioned.

xpost

2016

65,853,625 votes

2020

81,282,916 votes

why are we doing this

I don't disagree with you about the repetitiveness of it all Neando, but to be clear, I was responding to an actual question posed in this thread:

i have no clue what the angle is w/ this questioning

Wasn't implying that this was something to swing the election or mean anything outside his insular bubble, just explaining why this tactic is even in play. I think a direct answer to a direct question itt isn't unreasonable, despite how tired you personally may be of hearing about a particular angle.

This is the post I responding to:

i have no clue what the angle is w/ this questioning

― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved)

apologies that you are bored with this discussion but time keeps marching forward

she might get sanctioned, she may not care, probably just angling for a spot in the cabinet or as a regular Fox commentator

xxpost Because you are claiming that the independents fled him in 2020. However his vote total grew by 12 million. If that's his base, it's pretty fucking huge.

xps - Trump comes from a world in which image and branding are paramount. It's how he made his money after he flamed out in the casino business. Expanding his brand was his original motivation for him to run for president. He was just copy-catting Herman Cain, the Godfather's Pizza guy. These days, he knows that his massive cult and its hold on the Republican party is what keeps him out of prison. So, yes, he cares more about his narrative than the court's judgement.

I refuse to believe Trump gained voters in 2020. My tinfoil hat conspiracy is that there was massive voting fraud in 2020...by the Republicans. Also based on the "always accuse your enemies of doing what you are doing" theory.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

25% of voters in 2020 didn't vote in 2016, and the majority of these 'new voters' favored Biden. the reason for the sharp increase in the number of voters, besides polarization leading to people "coming out of hibernation", was the ease of voting due to the prevalence of vote by mail being used much more than ever due to COVID. this is simple.

Biden gained 10% from Independent voters, whereas Trump got the same share he did in 2016. Trump's vote gains were almost 100% from people registered Republican - and actually, more Republican voters voted for Biden than voted for Hillary in 2016, by a small margin.

we've talked about this...at length...for years.

xxxpost

now can we focus on the trial...which is the actual thing happening today?

Wasn't implying that this was something to swing the election or mean anything outside his insular bubble, just explaining why this tactic is even in play. I think a direct answer to a direct question itt isn't unreasonable, despite how tired you personally may be of hearing about a particular angle.

― Maxmillion D. Boosted (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Thursday, January 25, 2024 1:02 PM bookmarkflaglink

understood, and I respect where you're coming from but in this particular instance, I dont agree that it's really the strategy. the strategy is to lower the monetary damages. he wants to pay less money. yeah, there may be other ulterior motives, but that seems to be what she's getting at.

I'm guessing they are going to fail quite spectacularly with that as well

to beat a dead horse Neanderthal, getting 43% of independents in 2016 and 43% of independents in 2020 does not mean that Independents fled from you. It just means Biden was able to get many more than Hillary did. Unlikely to so this year.

Why is Biden less likely to do well with independents this year?

Because he's had historically low approval ratings for most of his term.

I know I always get scolded when I say this, but that is a big part of why I'm skeptical of the blind confidence some express in Biden cleanly trouncing Trump in the general. The historically low approval ratings, the media largely refusing to cover his clear wins and him continuing to fuck up in significant ways (Gaza)... I just don't see a clean, clear win without some drastic shift in the playing field.

One or more felony convictions might do that.

Fingers crossed.

Also, people are Feeling Better about the economy -- whatever it means (we've discussed it in the politics thread).

I think the odds are in Biden's favor, but it will be painfully close either way, and there needs to be constant aggressive pushback to the false narratives that fuel Trump's campaign.

What Biden must worry about most:

(1) independents staying home (they're not going to vote for Trump)
(2) a heart attack/embolism

I almost wrote "terrorist attack" but Biden's Senate career kowtowing to flag-waving will serve him in good stead.

him continuing to fuck up in significant ways (Gaza)...

I feel like a huge asshole saying this, because I am obviously not on Israel's side, but I genuinely feel like "people who are not going to vote for Joe Biden because of Gaza" are...statistically insignificant. People say they're not going to vote for Biden because of Gaza, but they will; or people who were never going to vote at all say they're specifically not going to vote for Biden because of Gaza out of some combination of "maybe this will get people to pay attention to Gaza" and "look at me, I'm special"; but people Biden has actually lost because of this? You could fit them all in my apartment, and as fucked up as it is, he probably gains more votes from pro-Israel maniacs who might otherwise vote Republican.

I'd say Biden's gotta worry about sentiments in Michigan, but apparently his campaign announced yesterday they're going to live in the '20 battleground states.

Every election will be painfully close from here on out. We as a nation have sorted ourselves with weirdly accurate precision, so as to keep things approximately tied from a Senate and Electoral College standpoint. Liberal voters concentrate in already blue cities, diluting their power. Rural voters stay put, and suburbs/exurbs gain - but it tends to be a wash.

So we're back where we started.

Here we go round again

good xp

It's been thus since 2000, the Obama years excepted. I'm used to it.

I totally understand the fatigue, I feel it too! Sadly, this shit never ends.

If you're queer, for example, the battle has never ended. So I see things differently.

the blind confidence some express in Biden cleanly trouncing Trump in the general

where was this?

Several posters in the various politics threads over the past several months have quite clearly posted that they absolutely believe Biden will beat Trump in the general.

biden is fine in michigan, UAW just endorsed him and the poll that showed him trailing to trump has flaws

i think Biden will totally beat Trump

I'm confident Biden will beat Trump but it won't be a trouncing or, to quote Dubya, a thumpin'.

Meantime, going great

Judge Kaplan: Let me hear from the other side.
Roberta Kaplan: Just now Mr. Trump said under his breath he's going to say he never did it.
Judge Kaplan: He will not testify about questions asked of him by reporters?
Habba: No. If I may you Honor--
Judge Kaplan: No

— Inner City Press (@innercitypress) January 25, 2024

A shellacking

(2) a heart attack/embolism

Depends who has the heart attack/embolism

yah for sure i think it will be close too

Mm, I don't think it'll be THAT close. A Biden blowout, nah, but it'll be comfortably enough in the end.

Ned, have you been tampering with the ballot or

Some very unhealthy people are also weirdly immortal

Ned, have you been tampering with the ballot or

shh ned's cookin'

Ned, have you been tampering with the ballot or

It's what I do, man.

Anyway, on the FAFO front:

Roberta Kaplan: He had an opportunity to participate in a trial--
Judge Kaplan: And he lost. I will so instruct the jury. More than once.
Trump says, "I wasn't at the trial, I never met this woman
Judge Kaplan: Mr. Trump, keep your voice down.

— Inner City Press (@innercitypress) January 25, 2024

i mean i'm not super confident...about anything...but I dunno Trump-as-boogieman I just don't get it, he's very beatable

Some very unhealthy people are also weirdly immortal

― Wine not? (Ye Mad Puffin), Thursday, January 25, 2024 1:10 PM (0 seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

Harry Dean Stanton lived to 91

I'm enjoying the trials but can't imagine they'll matter much in the election.

No way he's allowed to take the stand